Abbott remains favored as Texas governor race tightens before Election Day
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott remains the prediction-market favorite over Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa, but recent polls and market prices show a competitive race ahead of Tuesday’s vote. The contest is also drawing attention as a test of voter sentiment toward data-center development, an issue Hinojosa has used to challenge Abbott’s earlier support for the industry.13
TL;DR
Across the coverage
The Oct. 29 Texas Southern University poll reported Abbott leading Hinojosa 50% to 47%, while MultiState’s account of the two newest polls said Hinojosa was narrowly ahead. The results reflect different polls and field dates, rather than a single uniform polling picture.23
Still to come
- Texas voters go to the polls on Nov. 3, with more than 7.7 million ballots already cast during early voting. The result will determine whether Abbott secures a fourth term and provide one measure of how the data-center issue featured in the campaign played in the election.
On Nov. 2, the market estimate for a Democratic win in the Texas governor’s race was about 39%, leaving Abbott favored but Hinojosa with a substantial chance of an upset. CNBC reported Kalshi’s estimate for Abbott at 60% on Monday and said Hinojosa’s odds had risen from 8% in mid-July to 40%; the markets are not substitutes for traditional polling.1M3
Recent polls offer differing snapshots. A Texas Southern University poll released Oct. 29 put Abbott ahead, 50% to 47%. The two newest polls in the RealClearPolling average cited by MultiState showed Hinojosa narrowly ahead, and AtlasIntel’s Nov. 2 post reported her at 50.1% to Abbott’s 48.5% among valid votes. These results indicate a close contest, not a settled outcome.23X1
The data-center dispute gives the race stakes beyond the candidates’ relative strength. Abbott praised Google’s $40 billion investment in Texas in November 2025, which included three new data centers. This year, he ordered an audit of data centers seeking grid connections and paused approvals for data-center-related permits pending an audit of the waitlist. Hinojosa has called for an immediate moratorium until lawmakers establish industry guardrails, and has criticized Abbott over his earlier support.1
The election is Tuesday, Nov. 3, after in-person early voting ended Friday; more than 7.7 million Texans had already cast ballots, according to CNBC. The result may be watched for signs of voter resistance to data-center development, though the election alone cannot establish how much that issue affected voters’ choices.1
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AtlasIntel
@atlas_intel
🇺🇸 ATLAS POLL | TEXAS
1⃣ TEXAS GOVERNOR 2026 | Valid votes
Democrat Gina Hinojosa holds a narrow 1.6pp lead over Republican incumbent Greg Abbott in the Texas gubernatorial race.
🔵 Gina Hinojosa: 50.1%
🔴 Greg Abbott: 48.5%
🟡 Other: 1.3%
Sources
AI-generated from the linked reporting and prediction-market data. Market prices reflect traders’ expectations and can change.