Trump approval near low as Republicans head into midterms
A Reuters/Ipsos poll put President Donald Trump’s approval at 32 percent on the eve of the midterm elections, while voters preferred Democrats over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, 46 percent to 38 percent. Trump’s final major speech before voting focused largely on Washington renovation projects, as Republicans faced a contest that will decide control of Congress.12
TL;DR
- The poll points to a difficult backdrop for Republicans: Trump’s approval remained near its recent low, and Democrats led the generic ballot, even as that lead narrowed from the prior week.3
- The markets’ expectations for the November 6 RealClearPolling average cluster around the high 38s to low 39s, a separate yardstick from the Reuters/Ipsos poll highlighted in the election-eve reporting.3M4M3
Still to come
- Voters go to the polls on Tuesday, November 3, in elections that will determine whether Republicans retain control of the House and Senate. The result will shape the scope of congressional investigations and oversight available to the president’s opponents.
The approval figure was one percentage point above the poll’s 31 percent reading two weeks earlier and unchanged from a week earlier. The Democratic lead on the generic ballot was eight points, narrower than the 11-point advantage in the previous week’s poll. The survey also found that 78 percent of voters considered the rising cost of living very important or the most important issue in deciding their vote.3
Trump wrapped up his campaigning Monday with a speech at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, spending much of it on the pool’s renovation and other plans for Washington before turning briefly to the elections. Reuters reported that nonpartisan analysts generally favored Democrats to win the House, while viewing the Senate as competitive. A Democratic-controlled Congress could also open investigations into Trump administration projects that faced legal challenges or proceeded without congressional approval, Reuters noted.2
Prediction markets put the chance that the RealClearPolling average will be 39.0 to 39.4 percent on November 6 at about 40 percent, and the chance it will be 38.5 to 38.9 percent at about 35 percent, based on prices observed November 2. Those brackets concern a polling average, not the Reuters/Ipsos survey’s 32 percent result; a separate report put the RealClearPolling average at 39.3 percent on November 2. The market pricing therefore adds a distinct measure of expectations about where the broader approval average may stand later in the week.3M4M3
Sources
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Trump approval rating near record low on eve of US midterm elections: Poll · Al Jazeera Online · Nov 2
AI-generated from the linked reporting and prediction-market data. Market prices reflect traders’ expectations and can change.